After reading so much, thinking so much ( with a few sleepless nights), I am still not sure how should I calculate the return .... damn ....that's what they call 数目白痴 。。。。
from NSP (http://sinpeow.blogspot.com), there's calculation :
http://sinpeow.blogspot.com/2013/02/roi-19.html
and compare it with the excel I got from the lowyat forum :
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2661898/all
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| Image FromNSPBlog |
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| A Snapshot of the Excel with different Formula (XIRR) calculating compounded rate |
Though we can't do apple to apple comparison as the 2 above having 2 different capacity installed. But noticed there are some questionable part that we may need to look into while calculating the ROI:
1. Initial investment is a very critical part impacting the ROI.
2. Maintenance : is it really necessary to spend RM250 per year for cleaning ? That will eat into 1/2 month profit
3. There's 1 more thing about how long the equipment last, i noted the inverter only can last 10 years. Hence, for a 21 year plan, we may need to scope out additional RM6K (estimated).
4. And, after 21 years, should we presume the solar panel to be wear off ? If yes, then NSP's real return would need take out that initial invested amount.
5. If this is a private application, we need to consider the income tax portion, for the highest bracket, 26% eat into the profit a lot.
Hence, from the 2nd excel, you would see with compounded ROI, the return is only 4.61% which the different from NSP is :
1. RM250 yearly maintenance
2. RM6000 10 years once change of inverter (2 times in 21 years)
3. About RM19K (RM69k-RM50K) extra in initial installation (from researh it shows normally it cost around 10K per KW
4. Treat the initial installation charges de-valued after 21 years
5. Included tax of 26% on the profit earned
There are some other consideration need to put in:
1. My house area has a lot of birds, monkeys and squirrels, will these animals potentially spoil the solar panel ?
2. If that happened roof leaking within this 21 years, will the normal roof leakage repair person know how to open up the panel to repair my roof ?
3. Thunder, will thunder be a thread to the solar panel too ?
4. Can I apply with company quota instead of my personal quota ? I am looking at the income tax portion ....
1. My house area has a lot of birds, monkeys and squirrels, will these animals potentially spoil the solar panel ?
2. If that happened roof leaking within this 21 years, will the normal roof leakage repair person know how to open up the panel to repair my roof ?
3. Thunder, will thunder be a thread to the solar panel too ?
4. Can I apply with company quota instead of my personal quota ? I am looking at the income tax portion ....
I think I really need advises from others so that we can have a good and clear picture of this investment before we make the move.
Feel free to comment and discuss.
6 comments:
1. RM250 yearly maintenance >> depend on your area, if have a lot left , bird shit, monkey shit then need to do frequent cleanup. else no need any clean up, normally the rain will help to clean the dust.
2. RM6000 10 years once change of inverter (2 times in 21 years)
this one maybe, but after 5-10 year the inverter cost will cheaper.
3. About RM19K (RM69k-RM50K) extra in initial installation (from researh it shows normally it cost around 10K per KW
is depend what bran and KW u install, more you install will more cheaper
4. Treat the initial installation charges de-valued after 21 years
after 21 years anyhow still will have 80% above output, the contract is 21 year, after that maybe can continue or maybe can own use. let say after 21 years the TNB eletircy is expensive than RM1.46 (quota price i get) then i can consider own use .
5. Included tax of 26% on the profit earned
yeah, you need to consider it , if you are high income ppl :) . but the other hand i can see the benefit is the high income tax can help you get more loan for me to buy property.
*few more year i will thinking to go out from malaysia work, or not want working and open an company for business
anyway the ROI table is show is base on ROE calculation, is not base on RRI calculation. so the 19% just for first year.
Consideration
1. Animals generally unable to damage your solar panels on roof. The animals dropping could cause shading on panels.
2. Removing panels are easy but need to handle the panel carefully. Just remove a few bolts and nuts. The panels on roof actually protect your the roof tiles
3. Thunder can cause serious damage to panels. Lightning risk is high only if your roof is highest point in the area. Most housing area is unlikely
4. Sorry, cannot help you.
Thanks NSP and HCTCMS, you enlighten me with very valuable points and information.
I know NSP you are part-time agent, can you introduce the supplier to me ?
I learned something new. I saw some people starting to install solar panels on their rooftop recently.
I guess the biggest concern is protecting your solar panels at least for 7 years so that it can break even.
so did you install solar FIT system ?
yes, i do subscribe and submit my application for my own roof, but the process is really slowww......
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